Rent or buy

What does each cost over the years you would stay?

A home priced from registered completed sales, rented at the registered new-let rent, bought with the down payment the Central Bank rules allow. Drag the price scenario and what your cash would earn instead; the net cost of each path, and the year the two cross, recompute as you do.

Jumeirah Village Circle(DLD: Al Barsha South Fourth)·Apartment·1 bed

Prices a year — your scenario+0.0%Ticks are what happened, not a forecast: all ready homes here per sqft, not this size — a shift in the median of what sold, not a return any home earned. Last three years +8.1% a year (+26%, May 2023–Jul 2023 → May 2026–Jul 2026, 954 / 1,024 sales). Its worst three years on record since 2011: -11.1% a year (-30%, 2017 → 2020, 780 / 790 sales).What the upfront cash earns if you rent, a year+4.0%A scenario, not a rate anyone offers. It starts at the loan rate (4.00%), so the cash a buyer puts down is credited the same rate a buyer pays to borrow; 0% is the cash sitting idle. A higher figure lowers renting's net cost, a lower one raises it.

Net cost after 10 years · Jumeirah Village Circle · at +0.0% a year on the home, +4.0% on the cash

Buying

AED 481.16K

paid out, less the equity held at year 10

Renting

AED 600K

rent paid, less what the kept cash grew by

The down payment and every fee — AED 270.7K here — is what a renter keeps and a buyer spends on day one.

Buying costs less than renting from year 5 through year 10.

Month to month at the start: AED 4,223 on the mortgage plus AED 941 in service charge against AED 6,083 in rent.

Renting's net cost less buying's, after 10 years, across price scenarios

-10% a year0%+10% a year

At +0.0% a year: buying costs AED 118.84K less by year 10. Solid, above the line: buying cost less by the end. Outlined, below: renting cost less. Dashed line: where the two meet.

The two cost the same over 10 years if prices move -1.3% a year. Over 5 / 10 / 15 / 20 years the two meet at -0.2% / -1.3% / -1.9% / -2.4% a year. Ready homes here moved about +8.1% a year over the last three years and -11.1% a year in their worst three on record — what happened, not a forecast.

Assumptions20% down · 4.00% · 25y term · 10y stay · price AED 1M · rent AED 73K a year · service AED 11.29K · exit 2%

Down payment, % of price20% is the smallest the Central Bank rules allow an expatriate on a first home at this price, as we read them (Circular 31/2013, amended 2020); 100% is buying outright. Banks set their own limits.Loan rate, % a yearan assumption you can change, not a rate any bank offers

Years you would stay

Term

Pricemedian completed-home sale of this size, Sept 2025 – Aug 2026 · 2,452 salesRent a yearmedian new let of this size, Sept 2025 – Aug 2026 · 9,754 new letsService charge a yearmiddle owners-association filing across 72 buildings here, filed for 2019–2023 (58 for 2023), AED 14/sqft × 806 sqft; charges have risen since and this is held flatRent change, % a yearheld at today's new-let median by default; a sitting tenant's renewal is capped under Decree 43 of 2013 and lags new lets, so a rising figure here is a scenarioAgency on sale, %taken off the home's value at the end of the stay, on the buying side

Not counted, and every one of them a cost of owning: the month-to-month difference between the two paths' outgoings (whichever path pays less each month could invest the difference), maintenance, insurance a lender requires, a rate reset after a fixed period, early-settlement charges. The buying side is understated by them.

Ledger · where the two net costs come from, at year 10

Buying
Down payment20% of AED 1M: AED 200,000
Fees on day oneDLD transfer 4% (DLD) · agency 2% (agent) · trustee AED 4,200 typical (trustee office) · NOC AED 1,500 typical (developer) · registration 0.25% of the loan (DLD) · valuation AED 3,000 typical (bank): AED 70,700
Mortgage payments over 10 yearsAED 4,223 a month on a AED 800K loan: AED 506,723
Service charge over 10 yearsheld flat: AED 112,860
Less: home value at year 10at +0.0% a year — your scenario: − AED 1,000,000
Plus: agency on sale: AED 20,000
Plus: loan still owed: AED 570,875
Net cost of buying: AED 481,159

Renting
Rent over 10 yearsAED 6,083 a month, held flat: AED 730,000
Less: growth on the cash keptAED 270.7K — the down payment and fees a buyer spends — at +4.0% a year: − AED 130,002
Net cost of renting: AED 599,998

Year by year

Year	Net cost, buying	Net cost, renting
1	AED 133,640	AED 62,172
2	AED 175,805	AED 123,911
3	AED 217,163	AED 185,199
4	AED 257,683	AED 246,019
5	AED 297,329	AED 306,352
6	AED 336,065	AED 366,178
7	AED 373,856	AED 425,477
8	AED 410,662	AED 484,228
9	AED 446,444	AED 542,409
10	AED 481,159	AED 599,998

Bold rows: years in which buying's net cost is at or below renting's.

Scenario arithmetic on registered medians and figures you set. Not a quote, an offer of credit, a valuation of any home, or advice; Keyva is not a bank, broker or adviser and is not affiliated with DLD, RERA or the Central Bank. As of 12 September 2026. Floors and method.

The other halves of the same question

Buying with cash or with a loan — what each returns on the money put in, for the same cell.
Renewal rents against new-let rents — the rent here is a new let; a sitting tenant's renewal is capped and sits below it.
What a bank may lend — the down payment above is the rules' minimum, not an offer.